After a Lifetime of Crime, Trump Faces a Likely Life Sentence in the Near Future

     Donald Trump's actions on and since August 8th have been the worst case of shooting oneself in the foot I have ever seen. The DOJ and FBI nearly always do these raids, searches, whatever you want to call them, in secret, take what they are looking for, and keep quiet. It was Donald Trump himself who leaked word that the FBI was searching Mar-a-Lago. It was Donald Trump who riled up one supporter to attack the field office of the FBI in Cincinnati and another to threaten FBI agents in Pennsylvania.

     It was Donald Trump who demanded the warrant be released, and then the affidavit that made clear just how serious this investigation is. The chorus of mainstream Republicans defending Donald Trump has quieted down with the revelation that Trump quite possibly violated the Espionage Act, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and the federal statute that dictates the removal of documents from federal custody. These three laws carry a combined maximum of 23 years in prison, and each is a felony.

     One thing is clear: Donald Trump would never plead guilty. He feels invincible, and he has good reason to. Over his decades of bankruptcies, fraud, and other financial misdeeds and crimes, he has gotten off by making his subordinates, the likes of Michael Cohen and Allen Weisselberg, take the fall. There is no doing that in this case: dozens of classified documents and empty folders were found in his personal office and he and his attorneys have admitted that he personally knew of the classified documents; hell, they were mixed in with his passports.

     Trump, like most Americans, saw Merrick Garland as a bookish, scholarly, level, methodical, almost cowardly figure and believed that by beating his chest and hollering, he could force Garland and the DOJ to back down. If anything, all he has done is made America's top law enforcement officials more determined and more impatient to finish the investigation. I think that, because Trump has always gotten off and because the DOJ has been relatively quiet, Americans can't wrap their minds around a possible indictment.

     I think it is almost certain, even if it takes a number of months. The DOJ has clear evidence that he took and mishandled classified documents, he has no real legal defense, and investigations are ongoing into who he gave classified information to. His actions since the search have constituted repeatedly obstructing justice and have made his case worse in the court of public opinion as well as in a potential court of law. Although the maximum is 23 years in prison, if Donald Trump were to be convicted at trial, he would almost certainly face a sentencing range of 18 to 78 months in prison. My number one guess at a sentence would be four years in prison. 

     This is the most active investigation into Trump and the one most likely to produce an indictment in the near future. However, it is far from the only investigation. The DOJ is also investigating Donald Trump's role in the January 6th insurrection. This investigation is also very active. Just recently, the DOJ secured grand jury testimony from some of Trump's closest White House advisors, including Pat Cipollone, who gave damning testimony before the January 6th Committee that he believed Trump's actions were illegal. I believe Trump could face an indictment for his actions surrounding the 2020 presidential election as soon as next year. A seditious conspiracy charge is unlikely based on what we know so far, as it would require evidence that Trump conspired directly with militia groups like the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys. What is very likely is a charge of conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding, which, like sedition, is a 20-year felony. All they would have to prove is Trump's direct involvement in the fake electors plot, and his inaction during the insurrection, while not a crime in itself, would be proof to a jury that Trump was seeing the results he wanted.

     In the state of Georgia, groundbreaking testimony is still revealing the full depravity of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election before a special grand jury in Fulton County. It was recently revealed that election workers like Ruby Freeman were falsely told that they would be arrested (or worse) if they did not give Trump the win. This, as the infamous phone call proves, was approved by Trump himself, and it is a felony punishable by up to five years in prison.

     I think these three cases, while no case can ever be called a "slam dunk," are all solid ones that are more likely than not to send Trump to prison. After a lifetime of crime, Donald Trump could spend the last few years of his life passed around between state and federal prisons. It couldn't happen to a more deserving asshole.